Sp500 forecast
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S&P 500 Forecast 2020: When will equities peak? A guide for stock market bears
None of them was particularly bearish. But, all of those happened during one of the greatest bull markets of all time. The chart below shows the performance of each signal 40 trading days before the crossover and trading days 1 year thereafter.
Based on the past 50 years of history, the death cross has not been a bearish signal. The caveat is that the stock market has already defied many historic patterns. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a See chart and commentary below:. Green trend line is near-term support. An immediate break above trend line resistance may lead to closure of the open chart gap 2, However, any gains are likely to be slow and choppy, and risk of a drop lower — where a one-day drop can erase days or weeks of gains — exists.
My preferred scenario was featured in the May 1 Profit Radar Report see below. Why is this my preferred scenario? There was a bearish RSI divergence at the April 30 closing high, which could be enough for a sizeable drop, but a more pronounced set of divergences at higher prices would be a clearer signal. How big is the eventual down side risk is one of many questions answered in continuous Profit Radar Report updates. Now what?
We consider the longer-term up side potential to be significantly larger than the down side risk. Since the wave 2 pullback was on the shallow side, the dark green Elliott Wave Theory count with wave 3 target around 2, became operative. As the Profit Radar Report highlighted many times in the past most recently on December 14 , stocks rarely ever top at peak momentum.
This means, we are not at a major market top. But the risk of a pullback is increasing. It gives every critic a documented, black and white foundation for criticism. Anyone attempting to predict the unpredictable is doomed to miss the mark.
Accountability is an underrated if not entirely ignored concept on Wall Street. Subscribers to the Profit Radar Report deserve a straight-forward forecast. My goal is to provide a rough roadmap for the year ahead, based on what indicators are telling us right now. This means a major market top is, at minimum, months away. The up side target has been adjusted accordingly. This is the second time in that media and market pundits got blind sighted and fooled by a big event. The indicator-based approach has proven to be much more accurate than relying on news.
The more panic, the better the opportunity. Excessive fear shown going into an event causing uncertainty election usually results in a quick retreat of fear once results are in and digested. In addition, the days following the election tend to show some weakness. The Profit Radar Reports up side target may be surprising to many, but it is strictly indicator based.
At this point, only one ingredient is missing to unlock higher price targets. Another breadth thrust, or kickoff rally, launched in late June, two trading days after the Brexit vote see chart below. Stocks may pull back due to short-term overbought conditions, but with or without pullback, higher highs are likely.
There is an open chart gap at 2, Technical Analysis — Elliott Wave Theory. Bull markets die of starvation. Just as a fire needs wood to burn, the stock market needs fresh buyers to move higher. Fully invested investors can only do one of two things: hold or sell. Neither action buoys price any higher. Excessive optimism is an indication that buyers have become rare because everyone who wants to buy has already bought.
However, investor sentiment near the May all-time highs was not as euphoric as at prior tops. What about current sentiment? This target was already captured. Continued updates are available via the Profit Radar Report. New all-time highs — as projected — were the only possible way to reconcile those indicators.
At the time of publishing January 31, , our bullish outlook was truly contrarian. Indeed, the media did get it wrong. Indicator-based Approach The indicator-based approach has proven to be much more accurate than relying on news. Longer-term, there are a number of bullish forces which should push stocks through resistance.
Here is why we like the XIV trade. Historically, sentiment around May was not bullish enough for a major market top. Create a free website or blog at WordPress. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use. To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy. Post to Cancel.
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Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.
I also share my "eager beaver" mistake of not waiting for the right opportunity
As the coronavirus epidemic gathers steam in many parts of the U. As corporations provide more guidance to future earnings in coming weeks, the reality of these high valuations could sink in.
S&P 500 Forecast 2020, 2021, 2022
If our analysis is correct, the Q2 and Q3 global economic data will be very distressing and likely prompt a continued downside price contraction in stock price levels and valuations. Healthcare should outperform, while hotels are unlikely to recover quickly. With that being the case, the market is likely to see the same resistance barrier come into play. The stock markets in the United States have rallied after the horrific jobs figure coming out of the United States, which for some people might defy logic but quite frankly and unemployment figure of Based on the early price action and the current price at
S&P 500 (SPX)
If our analysis is correct, the Q2 and Q3 global economic data will be very distressing and likely prompt a continued downside price contraction in stock price levels and valuations. Healthcare should outperform, while hotels are unlikely to recover quickly. With that being the case, the market is likely to see the same resistance barrier come into play. The stock markets in the United States have rallied after the horrific jobs figure coming out of the United States, which for some people might defy logic but quite frankly and unemployment figure of Economic News. Expand Your Knowledge. Forex Brokers Filter. Trading tools. Macro Hub. Corona Virus.
American stock market indices have started the new year at record highs. On Thursday 2, the futures market shows a 0.
None of them was particularly bearish. But, all of those happened during one of the greatest bull markets of all time. The chart below shows the performance of each signal 40 trading days before the crossover and trading days 1 year thereafter. Based on the past 50 years of history, the death cross has not been a bearish signal.
